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Written for Gameweek 9. Its deadline has passed. Read the newest: GW9 review: how did our predictions do?

FPL Tilt · Team talk · Preview · Gameweek 9

Haaland, Jackson, Cherki and Thiago's missing goals: ten Gameweek 9 questions answered

By FPL Tilt on YouTube (opens in a new tab) · 30 October 2026

Who gets the armband, is Jackson worth the hype, and is it time to sell Cherki? Ten Gameweek 9 questions, answered with our predictions.

Nobody in the Premier League has scored further below his chances than Igor Thiago, and second on that list is Gonzalo García. Both are in our team, and both are staying, because apparently I enjoy this.

That is the last of this week's ten questions. The first is the armband, and in between are Nicolas Jackson, Rayan Cherki, Bruno Fernandes and what to do about Arsenal's defence before Anfield.

The Gameweek 9 deadline has passed.

1. Who should you captain in Gameweek 9?

I have six names on the list: Cole Palmer, Marcus Tavernier, Thiago, Bryan Mbeumo, António Silva and Erling Haaland.

Ordered by predicted points for Gameweek 9. Haul chance is eight points or more, as on each player's page, estimated from the predicted range. Predictions: ours, 30 October 2026. Points and ownership: Fantasy Premier League, the same day.

Figures read on 30 October 2026. The predictions are updated daily: Players shows today's figures.

Palmer looks right on paper, with United at home. Underneath, he has had about a third of an expected goal in his last four Gameweeks, against nearly two for Tavernier, and Chelsea have not scored in either league game João Pedro has missed. Cold Palmer has gone a bit too cold for me, and I can't do it.

Tavernier is more interesting. He has scored two goals in two weeks and has more double-figure scores this season than Haaland. He has five goals from three and a half expected, and his player page puts him in the 100th percentile of midfielders for bonus points and the 97th for expected goals.

Thiago has given us 5, 4, 4 and 5, which makes him the most reliable disappointment in the game. He has one goal from nearly four expected, and all three of his assists came in those four Gameweeks. No forward sets up more chances per 90, the 100th percentile for expected assists on his player page, so there is more here than the goals suggest.

Mbeumo is the one I would be tempted by. He has four goals from just over four expected, so nothing is flattering him, and Chelsea have let in eight at home.

Silva is second of every player in our predictions this week. He has two clean sheets in a row, has reached the DEFCON line in six of his eight matches, and Leeds have scored only three goals away from home. I am not telling you to do it. I just know somebody out there will.

Haaland is where I keep ending up, having spent far too long this week trying to talk myself out of him. He has five goals in four Gameweeks, has scored in seven games in a row and is predicted more than a point clear of everyone above, with a 38% chance of a haul against 28% for Thiago, the next highest. Brighton have let in one goal at home all season, but six away, and that is the Brighton he gets on Saturday. He had the night off in the cup, though so did most of Brighton's team: Fabian Hürzeler changed seven, with Bart Verbruggen and Maxim De Cuyper on the bench. We went differential last week and it cost us, so it is Haaland, and I have learned my lesson for at least a week.

2. Is it worth wildcarding this week?

I would wait. João Pedro's thigh and Riccardo Calafiori's hip are a transfer each.

The better reason is what comes after the break. Over the last four Gameweeks Spurs have given away fewer chances than anyone in the league, and straight after the break they play Ipswich and Sunderland. Liverpool play United, Everton and Sunderland. A wildcard played then builds into those runs, with far more known about who is fit. The full team and the case for playing it now are in our wildcard article. our wildcard article

3. Free Hit now, or save it?

I would save it, and we have changed our minds on ours. On Tuesday we were looking at playing it this week. Liverpool against Arsenal and Chelsea against United are both this weekend, and plenty of teams have players in those games, but tricky is not the same as broken. Three Gameweeks land in seven days over Christmas, and that is when squads start to creak, along with everyone who went back for a second helping. That is where I want it.

4. Is Jackson worth the hype?

I don't think so. More than a million managers have bought him this week after his two goals against City.

He also has four goals from less than two expected. Only Haaland and Cherki have scored further above their chances, and his player page puts him in the 29th percentile of forwards for expected goals.

Evanilson (Bournemouth, £6.3m) has three goals and about the same points over those four Gameweeks, and has been involved in far more chances per 90: only Haaland has been ahead of him. Their player pages show expected goal involvements of 0.62 for Evanilson over the last five, against 0.38 for Jackson. He is £0.5m cheaper, and our predictions like him more this week. Jackson is a great story, and I would just buy Evanilson.

5. Is Isak worth £9.1m?

Yes, but not this week. Alexander Isak is averaging more than seven points a game, Haaland just over eight, and there is nearly £7m between them. He has six goals, his player page puts him in the 95th percentile of forwards for expected goals, and no forward collects more bonus points.

Liverpool keep taking him off as if he were made of glass. I would wait for United, Everton and Sunderland after the break.

6. Is it time to sell Cherki?

I think so. No midfielder creates more, the 100th percentile for creativity on his player page, and he scored the winning penalty in the shoot-out against Brighton on Wednesday.

But he has four goals from less than two expected, and Enzo Maresca picks him as if he were choosing a shirt in the morning: one full 90 in his last five league games, and one game he did not play at all.

Tavernier is £1.6m cheaper, has more points and has started every game, and our predictions give him eight more points over the next five Gameweeks.

7. Is it time to give up on Bruno Fernandes?

Yes (I guess only dead teams still have him). Fernandes has four points from the last four Gameweeks, and Mbeumo, in the same team, has 20. That is five times the points for nearly £4m less.

8. Which Arsenal defender should you own?

Gabriel, if you can afford him. Arsenal have let in five goals all season, he has started every game, he is in the 99th percentile of defenders for threat, and he has reached the DEFCON line in four of his eight matches.

Ezri Konsa (£4.7m) is the cheap way in and the most bought defender of the week. William Saliba has no date for his return, but when he is back Konsa is the one who could lose out.

Calafiori is in 49.7% of teams. I would not panic: Mikel Arteta says he trained on Friday and should be available if Saturday's session goes well, but he was on the bench against Everton even before the hip, so I would leave him on your bench at Anfield, which is what we are doing with ours.

David Raya, if you just want the clean sheets. Either way, Hull are next at home, and our predictions have Gabriel top of every player that week. Selling him now is like leaving the cinema just before the good bit.

9. Is Tavernier fit for Leeds?

It looks that way. He came off at half-time in the cup, but Marco Rose did not name him among Bournemouth's injuries before Leeds, and FPL has no flag on him.

Bournemouth are also better than their results. Over the last four Gameweeks they have the best expected goal difference in the league, yet they have scored six and let in six. They dominate games and then agree to call it a draw.

10. Are Thiago and Gonzalo just unlucky?

I think so, mostly. They have one goal each from nearly four expected, and over the last four Gameweeks Gonzalo has been involved in nearly as many chances per 90 as Haaland. Haaland has 33 points in that time, and Gonzalo has eight: 2, 2, 2 and 2...

Goals against expected goals this season, ordered by the difference, as on each player's page. Figures: Fantasy Premier League, 30 October 2026.

It might not turn on Saturday. The chances are there, though, and they are the part I would worry about if they were not. Both stay, mostly because I have gone too far to stop now.

Who is getting your armband this week?