Guide · Explanation
How to read projected points
The short answer
A player's projected points are what he would score on average if the same match could be played many times. It is a way to compare players, not a forecast of what will happen on Saturday.
A best guess, not a promise
A projection is a best guess, not a promise. A player projected for five points can score zero or fifteen.
Football is decided by few events. One goal turns a two-point afternoon into an eight-point one. No number can tell you which afternoon you will get. What it can tell you is which of two players is the better bet over a season of such afternoons.
How to use the number
- Compare, do not predict. "Player A is projected higher than Player B" is a useful statement. "Player A will score 5.9" is not.
- Small gaps mean nothing. Two players at 4.4 and 4.3 are level. Choose between them on something else: price, the fixtures after this one, or who your rivals own.
- Large gaps mean something. A gap of a point or more between two players in the same position is worth acting on.
- Look further than one Gameweek. A transfer usually stays in your team for several weeks. FPL Tilt's projections cover the next five Gameweeks for that reason.
What it leaves out
- Late news. Injury news and price changes after the last update are not included. Each page shows when the numbers were last updated.
- Whether he plays at all. A projection for a doubtful player is only as good as the guess about his minutes. Check the News page before a deadline.
- Luck at the top. The top player in a close group is usually projected a little too high, because part of a narrow lead is luck. When three players are within a few tenths, do not treat the first as clearly the best.
How to check whether to trust it
Do not take any projection on faith, ours included. The Track record page shows how FPL Tilt's own squad has done against the average, Gameweek by Gameweek.
See the numbers
The Players page lists projected points for every player, for the next Gameweek and for the five ahead.